When the Euro 2020 started on the 11th of June, England was one of the favorites with the bookmakers to go on to lift the trophy. Fast forward three weeks and England is preparing for a semi-final against the Danes at Wembley after having dismantled Ukraine 4-0 at the Stadio Olimpico on Saturday night. So, what are England’s chances of lifting the trophy on Sunday and bringing football home?
Goldman Sachs is Backing England
After the last quarter-final was played, Goldman Sachs declared that football is probably going to come home, after their original pick, Belgium, was eliminated by Italy. So, how exactly did they come up with this prediction? Well, they have their own prediction model that uses data from around 6,000 matches since 1980. It takes into account different factors such as the current strength of a team, home advantage, recent performances, and whether a team is one of those teams that always performs at major competitions.
With Spain beating Switzerland on penalties, the first semi-final will see the Spanish take on Italy, and their model is predicting a narrow win for Spain. With Belgium out of the tournament, Goldman’s probability model predicts that England has a 57.7% chance of getting to the final and a 31.9% chance of lifting the trophy. Spain, according to the model, has a 54.6% chance of reaching the final and a 24.6% chance of winning the title, while Italy has a 45% chance of getting to the final and a 22.4% chance of winning the whole thing. Denmark is the complete underdogs, with a 42.3 % chance of making it to Sunday’s showpiece and a 21.1% chance of winning the trophy.
The model predicts that England will beat Denmark 2-1, meaning that Jordan Pickford will let in his first goal of the tournament. To be honest, not many England fans will care so long as their team scores more goals than Denmark on the night. The model predicts that Spain will be Italy 2-1, but that the match will go to extra-time.
What Odds Are the Bookmakers Offering?
So, the Goldman Sachs model is predicting that England will go on to win the tournament, but what are the bookmakers saying? Well, a quick look at an odds comparison site shows that the bookmakers agree with Goldman Sachs’ prediction model. All of the most popular sportsbooks, such as Bet365, Betiton, William Hill, Ladbrokes, 888sport, and Coral all have England as favorites to come out on top.
You need to choose betting sites with the best odds if England wins their match against Denmark, so you can make as much profit as possible should they go on to prosper. To help you do this, we have provided you with a table that shows the odds being offered by the best bookmakers for England to be victorious. It will also show the odds that bookies are giving the other three teams to come out on top.
As well as being able to bet on who you think will go on to win the competition, there are a number of other interesting markets that you can take a closer look at. For instance, the Golden Boot is still up for grabs, and there are a number of players still left in the competition that have a chance of nabbing it. At the moment, both Cristiano Ronaldo and Patrik Schick lead the way with five goals each, but the likes of Harry Kane, Raheem Sterling, and Kasper Dolberg have three goals each. While Alvaro Morata, Ciro Immobile, and Ferrán Torres have two goals each.
Below is a table with the odds available for the top scorer at Euro 2020.
Who Do We Think Will Win?
So, Goldman Sachs and the bookies have England as favorites to win the trophy, but what do we think? Well, first of all, we are not going to take the semi-final with Denmark for granted. The Danes have put in some fantastic performances during this tournament, and it really is not a forgone conclusion that England will beat them. The Danes suffered a traumatic experience in the first match against Finland when Christian Eriksen, their talisman, suffered cardiac arrest, and this seems to have galvanized them.
To add to this, the last time the two teams played each other at Wembley, the Danes came out on top courtesy of a penalty from Eriksen. However, if truth be told, it was a very soft penalty. This will be a very close match that will probably be decided by a solitary goal. If England does make it past Denmark, then either Italy or Spain awaits in the final, and would not like to call what way that match will go.
Players to Keep a Look Out for in the Semi-Final between England and Denmark
Both England and Denmark have a number of players that have put in very good performances to help their respective teams make it this far in the tournament, but there are some that stick out, and we are going to look at those right now.
Raheem Sterling: The Manchester City winger gets a lot of stick for his performances, but he has been mightily impressive during the competition. He has scored three goals in five matches and provided an excellent assist for Harry Kane to open the scoring against Ukraine with just four minutes on the clock. He has been a threat with his direct dribbling and the Danes will be keeping a close eye on him.
Harry Kane: There were calls for the Spurs striker to be dropped from the starting XI after he failed to find the net in any of the group matches, but class, as they say, is permanent. Against Germany, Jack Grealish came on with around 20 minutes to go, and provided the assist for Kane to score England’s second and put the game to bed. It seems that this goal has galvanized him and he is back to his best as he showed against Ukraine. The Danes will know that if they give him an inch, he will take a mile and punish them. He is still on the hunt for the Golden Boot and will be quietly confident of adding to his tally.
Kasper Dolberg: It is fair to say that Dolberg has been vital in the Danes making it to the semi-finals. The Nice forward scored a brace against Wales in their 4-0 rout, and he scored the winning goal for his team against the Czech Republic. He has shown great composure, has been very good in the air and links up well with the midfield. The English defense will definitely be wary of his skills and will also need to keep an eye on Mikkel Damsgaard, who has also been very impressive.